CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-07-06T09:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-07-06T09:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25827/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] This CME is a very faint potential partial halo seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2 difference imagery. The potential source of this CME is the filament eruption/double ribbon flare and associated brightening and dimming seen to the SE near AR's 13358 and 13359 starting around 2023-07-06T05:36Z. A post-eruptive arcade is visible between 06:00Z and 07:00Z. Due to the faintness of this event, high speculation is present. No clear arrival detected across all solar wind parameters, but we are checking with LASSOS team.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-09T19:14Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 532.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 587.880 Acceleration: -0.528669 Duration in seconds: 295353.26 Duration in days: 3.4184405 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.53 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 431.7 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 09/07/2023 Time: 19:14 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 59.77 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2023-07-07T07:28Z
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